[칼럼] Thorny road to denuclearization
김동현 (일민국제관계연구원 방문학자)
In the past few days, there has been a significant development on the Korean Peninsula: an outcome of high-level inter-Korean talks on Jan. 9 that resulted in assuring the safety of the PyeongChang Winter Olympics to begin next month and also opened a fresh window of opportunity to reduce tension and hold possible talks on denuclearization.
In the talks, North Korea announced it will send a large-scale delegation to the Olympics and agreed to work with the South to improve inter-Korean relations. The North restored a military line of communication with the South and agreed to resume military talks for reducing tension and preventing accidental conflicts along the DMZ.
However, the first challenge for military talks to confront will likely be the North side's unacceptable demand that the South end its joint exercises with U.S. forces, which have been temporarily postponed until after the Olympic Games. Moderation of the scale or rescheduling of the exercise may come up for discussion. In this context, it might be safer to put off military talks until after the Olympics as well.
In anticipation of the North's demands for lifting Seoul's "May 24 restrictions," reopening the Gaeseong Industrial Complex and resuming tourism to Geumgang Mountain, President Moon said these issues should be examined in light of the U.N. Security Council's sanctions against North Korea.
Following the inter-Korean talks, President Moon had phone conversations with U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. And the Korean President received encouraging support from the two foreign leaders most influential on the Korean Peninsula.
The Chinese leader expressed his support for South Korea's efforts to improve relations with the North and pursue a peaceful resolution through dialogue, a reflection of Beijing's policy to oppose any actions that contribute to instability on the peninsula.
President Moon endorsed President Trump's claim that the inter-Korean talks would not have been possible without his tough policy _ including a willingness to commit the total U.S. military might to North Korea. Moon thanked Trump's "influential leadership in making the talks possible."
In return, Trump said he was open to holding talks with North Korea "at the appropriate time, under the right circumstances." Vice President Mike Pence will lead a U.S. delegation to the Olympics. In addition, Trump said there would be no military action during North-South talks.
It is unknowable at this point how long inter-Korean talks would continue or how productive such talks will be. There are plenty of thorny, intractable issues lying ahead for them.
There is no evidence that Kim Jong-un's motivation was solely because of Trump's tough stance, to which the North did not back down on its aggressive nuclear ambition. In his New Year's address, Kim Jong-un doubled down on increasing his nuclear arsenal.
Trump's seemingly conciliatory statements do not mean a shift in U.S. policy. The Jan. 10 phone call between Trump and Moon stressed the importance of maximum pressure on North Korea. Moon supports and will continue to support Trump's pressure campaign against the regime in the North, if the North revives its visible provocations.
At a press conference, President Moon conceded that dialogue alone might not be sufficient to resolve the denuclearization issue, implying he might seek even tougher measures. However, he does not support a military solution, which Trump does not exclude from his options.
Seoul and Washington share the same goal of a denuclearized Korean Peninsula. Moon says any settlement of peace requires denuclearization. He also knows well that the North is not interested in talking to the South about denuclearization, not even with the U.S. at this time.
At Panmunjeom last week, the North Korean representative made it clear the nuclear issue should not be an issue for discussion with the South. Seoul is hoping improved relations with Pyongyang somehow could lead to dialogue and engagement between the North and the U.S.
Pyongyang's leaders have declared many times they will not negotiate away their hard-won nuclear arsenal. They believe only their nuclear weapons would ensure their survival. The answer may be in somewhere less than total denuclearization at the beginning, but in a long-term gradual process towards eventual denuclearization.
So far neither sanctions nor shows of U.S. military might were able to rein in the North's nuclear and missile programs. They did not even bring the North to talks. As opposed to military pre-emption, which neither North Korea nor the U.S. can really opt for, would talks bring more talks that could lead to a resolution of the nuclear issue? What's your take?
[Korea Times, 2018-01-14]
http://koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2018/01/137_242386.html