- 김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
In a report to the Eighth Congress of the Workers Party last week, Chairman Kim Jong-un declared that North Korea has completed a reliable strategic nuclear arsenal that includes a tactical nuclear weapon, in addition to an intercontinental ballistic missile, but it will continue to advance the capability of its weapons by new technology, according to the state-run KCNA.
Details on the North's plan to bolster its defense capabilities included research and development projects for a nuclear powered submarine, solid fuel engines, and "perfecting the guidance technology for a multi-warhead rocket at the final stage (multiple-reentry vehicles)." The report also said the North is getting ready to test and produce "hypersonic gliding flight warheads for new type ballistic rockets."
While Kim's report said the North's nuclear weapons were solely for defense in the case of "the hostile force's attempt to use its nuclear weapons against the DPRK," its strategic doctrine covers both preemptive and retaliatory strikes. There is no guarantee for the North to survive a massive first strike. The report hailed the regime's arms buildup as the most significant achievement of the party for the last five years since its 7th Congress.
In the economic sector, the party previously admitted that it had failed to meet the goals set forth in the previous five-year plan. Yet, the report reconfirmed that the North will stay the course for building a self-reliant economy for self-sufficiency. The cabinet is in charge of the economy, which has not much say on the matters of weapons development or diplomacy. A tighter state control of commercial activities is expected to maintain the framework of a planned economy and socialist commerce. More hardships lie ahead for the people in the North.
In diplomacy, the DPRK will maintain good relations with China, Russia and other "socialist" countries and even with progressive parties abroad. Toward the United States, the Party would deal with it "based on the principle of answering force with toughness and good faith in kind."
The report continued, "We should focus our external activities on containing and subduing the U.S., the fundamental obstacle to the development of our revolution and our foremost principal enemy….The entity of the U.S. and the real intention of its policy toward the DPRK will never change, whoever comes into power in the U.S."
Kim, however, did not close the window of diplomacy completely. He said, "A key to establishing a new relationship between the DPRK and the U.S. lies in the U.S. withdrawal of its hostile policy towards the DPRK." This was the first time that Pyongyang has broken its silence on the tumultuous aftermath of the U.S. presidential election in November. Many had hoped that Kim might convey a more conciliatory message to Washington. That hope has been shattered.
Toward the South, the report sent a mixed signal: offering an opportunity of dialogue at the expense of joint exercises with the U.S. and the ROK's defense modernization program that includes acquisitions of cutting-edge military hardware. The North knows its proposition is unacceptable to the South with the current security environment and incompatible with the perceived threats from the advancement of its own nuclear and conventional weapons.
The Seoul government's offers of cooperation for the coronavirus pandemic, a humanitarian project, and individual tourism were "nonessential issues" to the North. Neither did the recently enacted legislation banning sending leaflets to the North suffice its need. "A new road toward improvement of the North-South relations … can be paved only when the South Korean authorities strictly control and root out any abnormal anti-reunification conduct," by which the North refers to those who oppose North Korea. An impossible demand for a democratic society.
Kim said in his report that the prospect of restoring inter-Korean relations "entirely depends on the attitude of the South Korean authorities and they will receive as much as they pay and try." He was right when he said, one side alone cannot resolve the issue of inter-Korean relations. The two sides should meet and work together. But, the North is only firing a salvo of insurmountable demands on its part. The outlook for inter-Korean dialogue appears as gloomy as it does for U.S.-North Korea relations.
In the United States, which is going through a constitutional crisis due to a mob insurrection incited by the sitting president with less than two weeks left in office, North Korea is hardly a foreign policy priority for the incoming administration. It has been pushed behind the pandemic, the economy, climate, cyberattacks, human rights, China, etc. Now, the new developments in North Korea deserve the attention and interest of the new leadership in Washington.
[The Korea Times, 2021-01-11]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2021/01/137_302214.html