김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
The prospect of resuming nuclear talks between North Korea and the United States does not look good. Washington says it is ready to negotiate with Pyongyang on a working-level whenever they are ready. Two month ago, Trump said after his meeting with Kim Jong-un at Panmunjeom that Kim had agreed to hold working-level talks "in a few weeks."
The United States is still waiting to hear from the North on when or whether they will return to the table. A possible venue for such talks can be determined after the date is set. For logistical considerations (including travel cost), the North may prefer Panmunjeom for the talks. The problem is the North is not ready.
In April, the North Korean leader set a deadline by the end of 2019 to wait and see "if the U.S. changes its method of calculation," a proposition that the U.S. drops its position seeking an early big deal by which the North would denuclearize first in return for consequent sanctions relief and security guarantees.
The big deal attempt was rejected and failed in Hanoi. But, Washington has not produced a transformed version of its negotiating strategy. The North is waiting to hear that the U.S. will accommodate the North Korean proposal for a phased process with reciprocal, corresponding measures toward the end state of "complete denuclearization."
In the meantime, the North has conducted a series of provocative missile launches to test newly developed short-range ballistic missiles and long-range multiple rocket launchers, all capable of striking all of South Korea and western parts of Japan.
In a letter to Trump, Kim said he would stop firing missiles after the completion of joint U.S.-South Korea military exercises drills. However, It did not stop. The North continues to complain about Seoul's acquisition of high-tech military hardware from the U.S. and its own weapons development plan. Are they scared of South Korea's enhancing military capability?
Pyongyang's recent diatribes against Seoul focus on South Korea's defense build-up, which they say imposes security threats to the North. But they don't mention that their own arms build-up threatens the South. The fact is both sides' arms build-up is inevitably threatening each other in the absence of security dialogue and confidence building between them.
The North seems to be shunning the South for two main reasons: 1) there is not much that the North can gain economically from the South without U.S. approval, and 2) the North is still obsessed with the possibility of absorption by the South that has an economy of $1.92 trillion in GDP compared to $40 billion in North Korea.
While the leadership in Pyongyang may or may not have been contemplating the next diplomatic move it should make, its top diplomats responsible for talks with the U.S., have been reacting promptly to any comments from U.S. officials critical of North Korea or its leadership.
Foreign Minister Ri Yong Ho put out a harsh verbal attack on Secretary of State Mike Pompeo calling him "a poisonous plant to diplomacy" after Pompeo said the U.S. will maintain "the toughest sanctions in history" (as it exists today) until the North is back on the right path to denuclearization.
First Vice Minister Choe Son hui also attacked the secretary for his separate comment on North Korea's "rogue behavior." She warned that the hope of working-level talks was "disappearing." She added, "We may have to reconsider all the measures we have taken so far," implying that the North might resume nuclear and ICBM tests.
The KCNA (Korean Central News Agency) has carried these vituperous statements against the U.S. secretary of state and their complaints against "the South Korean warmongers." Last week, it published a commentary attacking U.S. Senator Ted Cruz, who made a negative remark about Kim.
Yet, Pyongyang refrains from direct attacks on Trump, an indication that they are still hoping to get an acceptable nuclear deal from the U.S. Kim is still waiting for good news from Trump. Kim will never denuclearize unconditionally because of the maximum pressure campaign ― sanctions or military threats.
More bad news for U.S.- DPRK talks: Ri Yong Ho will not go to the UNGA this month. Instead, he will "attend to other business." Ri will not sit down with Pompeo whom he called "a trouble maker" disrupting any potential deal.
North Korea has more to lose by not responding to talks with the U.S. and South Korea. Talks will serve its interest, as it can find answers to its questions, and explore better ways for survival and economic improvement instead of isolation and insecurity. Diplomacy is still the most preferred way to resolve the nuclear issue.
[The Korea Times, 2019-9-9]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/09/137_275348.html