[칼럼] Beginning of denuclearization process
김동현 (일민국제관계연구원 방문학자)
The outcome of the historic U.S.- North Korea summit in Singapore was met by an outpouring of comments ― mostly negative for lack of specificity in the signed joint statement, doubting North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's "firm and unswerving" commitment to "the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula."
There were complaints that the agreement did not include the critical parts of verification and irreversibility of a "complete, verifiable and irreversible denuclearization (CVID) that U.S. officials had said they were seeking. President Trump and his secretary of state Mike Pompeo clarified that the concepts of the two missing elements were included in the language of "complete denuclearization."
It is not surprising that North Korea would not have agreed to include "CVID" in the written agreement, in view of their persistent position that they were not a defeated party of war accepting an unconditional surrender, even though they understood or agreed with the meaning of the acronym through numerous pre-summit preparation meetings. Trump said he did not discuss it in the summit.
Once the denuclearization process begins, it will have to go through a rigorous verification and a permanent dismantlement of the North's nuclear programs. In the summit agreement, there is no timeline for the completion of North Korea's denuclearization. However, Pompeo told reporters in Seoul Thursday that he was hoping to complete the process during Trump's first term.
The major thrust of the joint statement was Kim Jong-un's commitment to denuclearization in return for U.S. security guarantees for the North. The two leaders also agreed to work towards a new bilateral relationship, a durable peace regime, denuclearization, and recovery of the remains of those lost during the Korean war.
Without details, the joint statement looks like an agenda for follow-up negotiations after the summit. In fact, Pompeo and a North Korean representative will undertake a follow up discussion as early as this week. Obviously, Pompeo will focus on a detailed denuclearization plan. North Korea will show more interest in the specific steps to security guarantees and the lifting of sanctions. Pyongyang was exuberant to hear Trump's mention of stopping "war games" that are "provocative" and "inappropriate" and expensive. Trump seemed to have echoed the North's propaganda that joint U.S.-South Korean exercises were a rehearsal for invasion of the North. Vice President Mike Pence said that did not mean to stop the regular training for readiness. Trump thinks these war games would be suspended as long as talks continue with the North in good faith. Not a bad idea, as the North will keep their freeze on nuclear and missile tests under the same conditions.
As Trump claimed he did not make any concessions, while Kim Jong-un released three American hostages, destroyed the nuclear testing site, and promised he would also destroy a testing ground for missile engines. Yes, Trump did not lift any sanctions yet, saying they will be lifted when there will be no nuclear threat. However, the justification of sanctions has been weakened.
After his return to Washington, he tweeted about the result of his summit, now "there is no nuclear threat to the United States. Perhaps the biggest accomplishment of the summit is the elimination of a possible nuclear war, which appeared real throughout 2017. Trump and Kim Jong-un seized a new opportunity to achieve a peaceful settlement of the decades' old hostility between the U.S. and the North and a resolution of the North's most dangerous nuclear weapons.
There is a lot of work to be done, starting immediately. For denuclearization, a sequence of its process can begin with a transparent declaration of all of the North's nuclear-related programs to be followed by a complete stop of all weapons production activities, moving to dismantlement of nuclear infrastructure for enriched uranium and plutonium and actual nuclear bombs and missiles. A rigorous and strict verification system is essential throughout the denuclearization process.
A peace regime should include a declaration to end the war and a peace treaty subject to Senate ratification. And it should involve South Korea and China as well. The first photo op of the two leaders shaking hands with U.S. and North Korean flags in the background demonstrated the symbolism of the virtual end of the war. When commanders of opposing forces meet during war, they fly white flags.
No doubt, Kim got more than Trump out of their first summit. However, now the ball is in Kim's court. He must make big positive moves. Otherwise, it is possible that we may all go back to the old mode of confrontation and threats of war.
[The Korea Times 2018-06-15]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/06/113_250724.html