[칼럼] The right price for denuclearization
김동현 (일민국제관계연구원 방문학자)
President Donald Trump canceled Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's planned trip to Pyongyang within 24 hours after Pompeo announced the plan last Thursday.
In a series of tweets, Trump said there was not enough progress on denuclearization, blaming China for not cooperating because of Washington's trade war with Beijing.
Pompeo was going to make his fourth visit to Pyongyang with his newly appointed special envoy for North Korea Stephen Biegun, who served as executive secretary for the National Security Council during the George W. Bush administration, to seek a breakthrough in the standoff with the North on denuclearization.
Trump maintains he has a good relationship with Kim Jong-un. He again sent his "warmest regards and respect to Chairman Kim," looking forward "to seeing him soon." Earlier he said a second meeting with Kim was "most likely."
Trump's cancellation of Pompeo's trip proves again he is the ultimate decision-maker who approves or disapproves decisions made by his secretaries and advisers, or changes his mind at the last minute. Such an erratic decision may have undermined the credibility or even the authority of the secretary of state under the Trump administration.
In Washington skepticism and distrust of North Korea's commitment to denuclearization have been growing and gaps have been widening between Washington and Pyongyang. It is true that the North has not stopped production activities to increase their nuclear and missile arsenal.
Even if Pompeo would go to Pyongyang, there is no guarantee he will meet with the North Korean leader. In July, Kim Jong-un did not see him, unlike on two previous occasions. North Korea seldom promises a foreign cabinet member a meeting with their leader in advance. It is Kim who decides whom to see and when, and sometimes only at the last minute.
The issues of denuclearization are "tough to resolve," as admitted by the new North Korea policy representative, who will coordinate and lead follow-up negotiations in the future. North Korea, armed with an advanced nuclear and missile capability, believes their nuclear weapon is the only reliable means of survival. They will not give it up without tangible security assurances from Washington.
Pyongyang has already rejected the U.S. offer of eventual economic and political benefits to follow from "denuclearization first." The North will not agree to a "final, fully verified denuclearization" within a year, regardless of what Kim may have told President Moon Jae-in prior to the Trump-Kim summit in Singapore on June 12.
The North strongly demands, and the South supports, a declaration to end the war in the current phase of negotiation. The inter-Korean relationship is moving fast towards mutual accommodation and cooperation. Last week's reunions of the separated families were a remarkable example of humanitarian cooperation by the two Koreas.
Through his August 15 speech marking Liberation Day, President Moon demonstrated determination to play a sovereign role in the settlement of peace on the peninsula, proposing an ambitious plan of economic cooperation with and through North Korea.
Since their April 27 Panmunjeom summit, there has been no noticeable provocation by the North. Some guard posts in the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) are withdrawn as an effort to demilitarize the heavily militarized DMZ. The South is considering stopping calling North Korea an enemy. Soon there will be a joint liaison office in Gaeseong.
More importantly, Moon will visit Pyongyang in September, with an exact date yet to be determined. Everybody knows a durable peace is not possible without denuclearization.
There is a possibility that the two Koreas could declare an end to the war, before the U.S. and China may come on board. Some envision that would lead to an easing of sanctions by China and Russia, and help the South's economic expansion into the North, which is not possible under the current sanctions.
However, Washington is fixed on sanctions. No easing or lifting until after the completion of denuclearization, although Kim recently complained about the sanctions. Trump said last week in a supporters' rally that "we will not lift the sanctions" before denuclearization.
There are many ideas being tossed around on how to make progress. They include an exchange of "a declaration of the arsenal" for "a declaration to end the war," "an exchange of liaison offices," and "a front loading of 20 percent denuclearization for a security guarantee by the U.N. Security Council" and "holding a trilateral summit between the U.S. and the two Koreas to agree on a peace regime" as part of the denuclearization process.
It will take the right price for peace and denuclearization.
[The Korea Times, 2018-08-26]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/08/113_254480.html