[칼럼] Protracted peace in Korea
김동현 (일민국제관계연구원 방문학자)
It is hard to know exactly what caused the current stalemate on the issue of North Korea's denuclearization. Yet, from sporadic reports, we can reconstruct what has happened since the dramatic U.S.-DPRK summit in June, when North Korean leader Kim Jong-un reaffirmed his commitment to complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton revealed last week that Kim had told President Moon Jae-in that he would finish "complete denuclearization within a year." Apparently on this assumption, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo unsuccessfully pressed the North for a list of Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal and a timeline for its denuclearization.
An American news website called Vox reported on Aug. 8 that Pompeo presented a proposal on his July visit to Pyongyang that North Korea would turn over 60 to 70 percent of its nuclear bombs to the U.S. or to a third country, as a starting point within six to eight months. If true, it should have been unthinkable to expect the North to accept such a proposal. The North rejected it, calling it later a "gangster-like" demand. Vox reported the U.S. has repeated the same demand to no avail.
Since Pompeo's unsuccessful rush on denuclearization, President Donald Trump has said, "no rush," "no speed limit," and "no time limit," but we will go through the process of denuclearization. Trump thanked Kim for returning 55 sets of remains of U.S. soldiers killed during the Korean War.
Pyongyang says some officials of the Trump administration are acting on the contrary to the upbeat spirit and vague substance of the Singapore agreement reached by the top leaders of the two countries. In reaction to recent U.S. moves on strengthening sanctions with no clear prospect of a declaration to end the war in Korea, the North Koreans are attempting to create a divide between the U.S. president and his hardliner advisers.
It appears as if Trump plays a good cop and his advisers a bad cop. Yet, there is no evidence that this division of the roles is based on a coherent policy. The DPRK's foreign ministry spokesman issued a special statement on Aug. 9 denouncing the pressure of sanctions as a policy that has failed in the past. The statement confirmed the Vox report that Pompeo "insisted on unilateral denuclearization first during the high-level talks in July."
The North Koreans are now saying, "We have done our part enough for the time being ― stopping nuclear and missile tests, destroying the nuclear test sites, returning the remains of the war dead, and undertaking the dismantling of the missile test ground." From Pyongyang's media outputs, "Now, it's the U.S.'s turn to respond by issuing a declaration ending the war."
Pyongyang claims, and Washington does not deny, that Trump agreed in Singapore to end the war, as the two Koreas did in Panmunjeom in April. Implementation of this agreement may contribute to creating a new atmosphere of building trust required for undertaking the next step in the denuclearization process.
There is no short cut to denuclearization, no better peaceful ways than going through a phased but assured and verifiable process. Washington should study and prepare what concessions it should offer for positive actions that the North will be willing to make at the different phases of denuclearization. The idea of denuclearization first, rewards later, would not work because the North will never accept it.
Negotiation is not making a unilateral demand from either side. Proposals can be made or rejected. Counter-proposals can be presented to see if the differences can be narrowed for possible adoption on each step of negotiation. It is not clear at this point what Trump will decide about North Korea. But it is clear that the policy pursued by his advisers is not working.
The good news is that neither side is giving up its hope to improve mutual relations and realize a nuclear-free North Korea. Inter-Korean relations seem to be proceeding constructively. The two sides are holding high-level talks at Panmunjeom on Aug. 13 to discuss the next North-South summit and to check on the implementation of the April 27 declaration. Moon and Kim agreed on ambitious objectives, including complete denuclearization, ending the state of war and building a durable peace regime, as well as promoting economic cooperation for co-prosperity.
In the meantime, peace continues as long as talks are under way. Protracted peace is better than tension and instability.
[The Korea Times, 2018-08-12]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/nation/2018/08/113_253693.html