김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
President Trump's undercutting of his national security adviser, John Bolton, at a recent press conference with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Tokyo, regarding the characterization of the short-range missiles that North Korea launched on May 4 and 9 sent a conflicting message to the world on U.S. policy on North Korea and spread speculation on Bolton's longevity in his job.
After Trump tweeted on May 25, "North Korea fired off some small weapons, which disturbed some of my people… but not me. I have confidence that Chairman Kim will keep his promise to me…," Bolton said the North fired ballistic missiles in violation of U.N. resolutions.
In the Tokyo news conference, Trump said in Bolton's presence, "My people think it could have been a violation of U.N. resolutions… I view it differently. I view it … perhaps he (Kim Jong-un) wants to get attention, and perhaps not. Who knows? It doesn't matter." That evening Bolton skipped an imperial dinner hosted by the newly enthroned Japanese emperor.
Bolton has been a controversial advocate for military action against North Korea. Trump pursues dialogue with the North as a signature initiative. Bolton has been opposing negotiations with the North. Pyongyang holds him and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo accountable for dissuading Trump from accepting their proposal for dismantling the Yongbyon nuclear complex in return for a major sanction relief in Hanoi in February. The North has called for the exclusion of Pompeo from future U.S.-North Korea talks.
Pyongyang does not spare its derogatory diatribe against Bolton. In the past, it called him "human scum." On May 27, Pyongyang's foreign ministry renewed their disparaging attack on Bolton, invoking his own words that he played the role of "a hammer to shatter the 1994 Agreed Framework." This time Pyongyang called him "a well-known anti-DPRK war maniac."
Interestingly enough, the South Korean defense ministry has maintained an ambiguous position on the short-range missiles in question, without calling them ballistic missiles. The ministry said that the missiles started off on a ballistic trajectory, and dropped vertically to a lower altitude to travel horizontally like a cruise missile. The U.S. defense department has called them ballistic missiles.
In the United States, the president makes foreign policy decisions, not the national security adviser, or the secretaries of state or defense who also advise the president and carry out decisions that the commander-in- chief makes. When Bolton took his job last year, he said that the views he had expressed as an individual do not matter, and what matters are statements and policy the president makes.
As Bolton appears to be a national security adviser with a track record of hawkish views and a penchant for blunt talk, it is not a surprise there have been some cases of friction with a contending secretary of state or defense on national security issues. The New York Times reported on May 27 "Trump is not fond of Bolton," and quoted Trump as making fun of Bolton's "militant reputation" in private: "If it was up to John, we would be in four wars now."
Bolton eliminated top policy meetings of department secretaries that used to be called "the principals' committee," (the PCs), replacing them with paper meetings of distributed documents, with the national security adviser providing briefings on issues to the president. Under the new system, Bolton no doubt is in the best position to control policy issues, an advantage over the agency chiefs.
Trump is ultimately responsible for success or failure of U.S. policy. If Trump believes Bolton's role of bad cop compliments his role as good cop, it will not work on North Koreans. They want to know what exactly Trump wants to do with them. They want Trump to ignore his advisers, who stick to an unrealistic strategy of forcing them to surrender their nuclear and missile programs that they believe ensure their survival.
In fairness to Trump, despite his unpredictability of what he might do next, he appears genuinely interested in keeping his campaign pledges including a resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue. By now, he knows what Kim Jong-un wants and what prevents him moving forward towards denuclearization.
If Trump believes his own people are a bigger impediment to a peaceful path to denuclearization than Kim or his militant subordinates are, he could end-run his advisers or he may have to consider getting rid of them. Trump should do something constructive during Kim's waiting period, ending at the end of the year, beyond which nobody knows what Kim might do.
[The Korea Times, 2019-06-03]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/06/137_269962.html