김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
Working-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea that President Trump and Kim Jung-un agreed to hold "in a few weeks" at their June 30 meeting in Panmunjeom are yet to take place. Despite the shortcomings and a poor record of such talks, they will still help to reduce tensions and continue diplomatic efforts to find a realistic path to denuclearization.
One problem with working-level talks: they are time-consuming, especially when their representatives have no flexible authority to negotiate issues on the table. Previous working-level talks with Pyongyang led to Kim's ambiguous commitment to "complete denuclearization" in Singapore, but failed to contribute to a summit agreement in Hanoi.
Steve Biegun, the U.S. representative to nuclear talks, has admitted there was no agreed definition of what "complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula" means, still a sticking point. He complained about his counterpart's lack of authorization to even discuss denuclearization.
Yet, past working level-talks were useful for setting up logistical and protocol arrangements for the last two summits. They also served as a forum to exchange each side's views, negotiating positions and intent, albeit within the strict boundary of instructions from their home government.
There were unconfirmed reports, Kim Myong-gil, Pyongyang's former ambassador to Vietnam and a deputy ambassador at the DPRK mission to the United Nations, was designated as Biegun's counterpart for the working-level talks. If the reports are true, Kim Myong-gil, who has long dealt with U.S. affairs, is unlikely to be delegated more authority than his predecessors were.
Last week, there were some false reports, including the disputed story that the Trump administration was shifting its strategy to ease some sanctions in exchange for a freeze of the North's nuclear production. The report stopped short of saying that Washington would settle for a freeze of Pyongyang's nuclear and missile programs.
Another similar, false report came from Seoul, speculating that Washington was considering suspending some sanctions (such as on coal and textiles) for 12 or 18 months as the North gradually dismantles its nuclear programs, beginning with closing the Yongbyon facilities.
In response to these reports, the spokeswoman for the State Department said a freeze "would never be the end of a process," but "would be at the beginning." The U.S. is "obviously seeking complete elimination of all of North Korea's weapons of mass destruction," she added. Washington's official goal remains a Final, Fully-Verified Denuclearization (FFVD). She also denied the Korean report that the administration was considering lifting some sanctions temporarily.
The Trump administration has maintained that sanctions will remain in place until denuclearization. Recently, the U.S has been toughening implementation of the sanctions against the North unilaterally and through the U.N. Security Council, although Trump talked about easing sanctions at some point as progress is made in denuclearization. Chinese President Xi Jinping told Trump at the G20 last month to go easy on sanctions.
From Trump's continuous compliments of Kim Jong-Un and his portrayal of a good relationship with Kim, Trump appears content with the status quo ― Kim's no nuclear tests and no missile launches. If he makes some symbolic progress on the North by an interim deal through the working-level process or otherwise, he can take it to 2020 as a victory. Trump too knows he's got to give something Kim wants down the road. He may be contemplating its timing in terms of its impact on domestic politics.
North Korea wants security and a better economy. In Hanoi, North Korean foreign minister Ri Yong-ho admitted that sanctions lifting was more urgent than security guarantees for the time being. Kim Jong-un is now the official head of state by the revised North Korean constitution, adopted in April and made public on July 12. Kim's rise to the head of state had little to do with the anticipation of signing normalization or peace treaty protocols with the U.S.
Toward the end state of negotiation, a well-verified freeze on the nuclear and missile production activities appears a reasonable first step to consider, given the North's adamant refusal to provide a full benchmarking of its arsenal. The North will not file a full listing of its nuclear and missile programs for fear that such information will provide targets for U.S. attack.
A freeze on the North's ongoing activities to produce fissile materials, nuclear weapons and delivery systems will not affect their current capabilities, threatening a nuclear strike to the continental United States and its allies in the region. The idea of a freeze was tried and failed before. Nevertheless, it is still worth it to try again. The North Korean nuclear and missile programs will have to stop first before rolling it back to elimination.
[The Korea Times, 2019-07-15]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/07/137_272310.html