[칼럼] Back to tensions on peninsula

김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자

A familiar pattern of harsh rhetoric between North Korea and the United States is back ― literally, a war of words that does not help resuscitation of nuclear talks. The rhetoric from both sides appears to be backed up by mutual demonstrations of military might.

Recently at a NATO summit in London, Trump called North Korean leader Kim Jong-un "a Rocket Man" again, and instantly Kim's representatives called Trump "a deranged dotard." (Kim is the original author of Trump's moniker.) While claiming his relations with Kim were still good, Trump said he "would use force on the North, if he will have to" in reaction to Kim's escalating provocations.

For a month now, representatives of North Korean organizations ― including the foreign ministry, the military and the academy of sciences ― have issued a string of statements signaling that the North was on the verge of embarking on a "new path" to a fully-fledged nuclear state, regardless of U.S. objection, and without a peace settlement or improved relations with the U.S.

In Washington and at the United Nations, U.S. officials talk tough against North Korean provocative behavior. The U.S. military conducts missile tests for intermediate-ranges and ICBMs. It is enhancing its missile defense capability. It supports diplomacy to salvage stalled talks, but if diplomacy fails, it will be ready for the worst-case scenario of a terrifying conflict.

This year alone, the North has been launching short-range ballistic missiles from both of its coasts. Lately, it has conducted a series of "important tests" presumably to test new rocket engines at the Sohae satellite launch site. Maybe, the engines were designed for ICBMs. In 2018, Kim had said he would destroy the same launch site as a step to denuclearization.

On Dec. 14, Chief of the KPA's general staff Pak Jong-chon said "the successful results" from the tests will be applied in developing a new strategic weapon to "deter and overpower the nuclear threat of the U.S." He also said, "We should be ready to cope with political and military provocations of the hostile forces and be familiar with both dialogue and confrontation."

"The KPA is ready to carry out any decision that Kim Jong-un will make." Pak warned at the end of his statement, "The U.S. and other hostile forces will spend the year-end in peace only when they hold off any words and deeds rattling us."

Dec. 12, another statement by Pyongyang's foreign ministry spokesman said, "We have nothing more to lose (without the talks) and we are ready to take a counter measure to any option that the U.S. opts for." The North does not expect that the U.S. will offer anything new for resumption of the talks. The spokesman said that the North now can "make a definite decision on what way to choose."

Yet, a silver lining of the current situation is that it does not seem to be as bad or dangerous as it was during the "fire and fury" days of 2017. There is still room for diplomacy. Neither side has given up negotiations. South Korea and other countries around the world support a peaceful denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. War is not a viable option. If a second Korean war breaks, it will be a nuclear war that will annihilate both Koreas to the point of no recovery.

A window of opportunity is still open for North Korean leaders to think over what really is the best for their country and their people. Kim is yet to announce his decision, as the year-end deadline that he placed by himself is approaching. Threats of an unwanted "Christmas gift" ― a resumed ICBM test or a formal declaration of terminating diplomatic negotiations ― will not serve the interest of any party. A reminder: It is still possible to achieve an acceptable quid pro quo deal for their denuclearization.

On the other hand, Washington should remember: There will be no progress in nuclear talks, unless it offers concrete, material benefits to the North, not after but during the process of denuclearization, in return for positive steps that the North will take. The North has made it clear that it will not return to the table without a new U.S. offer.

This column has all along held the view that the approach of "denuclearization first and rewards later" will not work. By the same token, the North Korean style of brinksmanship or bluster does not work. Threats from either side, intended or perceived, do not pay off. They only raise tensions and potential miscalculations.

We hope Stephen Biegun, U.S. representative for North Korea, finds some opening to a breakthrough for the stalemate of talks, while he is visiting Korea until Dec. 17.

[The Korea Times, 2019-12-16]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2019/12/137_280397.html