[칼럼] Politics of coronavirus

김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자

The coronavirus has spread to over 150 countries, with over 306,000 confirmed cases and more than 13,000 fatalities. The world already seems like it's heading for recession because of the virus. What political impact the coronavirus will have on the countries it has infected is not knowable at this point.

History has witnessed two worse pandemic calamities ― the Black Death of the 14th century ravaged Europe, Africa, and Asia, with an estimated death toll of between 75 million and 200 million people and the 1918 influenza pandemic from which about 50 million people worldwide perished.

China still maintains that the origin of the coronavirus is not known scientifically. On Chinese social media rumors have spread that members of the U.S. military were involved in the origin of the virus.

However, it is hard to deny that the novel coronavirus ― officially called COVID-19 ― originated from Wuhan, China. The city reported the first breakout of the virus in December. Some call it the Wuhan virus. Trump calls it the "Chinese virus" because "it comes from China."

In reaction, the Global Times of the Chinese Communist Party accused Trump of using "the China card to divert domestic attention from a botched handling of the virus to attacking China." China appears ready to strike back in a propaganda and trade war with the U.S. Trump has been tough on China. Beijing will be glad to see Trump go.

After Trump used the expression "Chinese virus," some wondered whether he was stigmatizing China or Chinese-Americans from a racial perspective. Simply, by using the expression, he may have tried to distance himself from a terrible failure to reckon with the threat of coronavirus at the beginning of the outbreak in the United States.

Trump has complained that China was not transparent in the initial phase of the virus spreading and that China did not warn other nations of the infectiousness of coronavirus. If China had done so, the world would have been better prepared earlier.

Good news from China is that the number of new cases is coming down, while the number of cured patients in Wuhan is increasing. South Korea did not close all air traffic with China but it has been effective in combatting the virus through an aggressive testing system and an effective public campaign against the pandemic.

In terms of the political impact of coronavirus on South Korea, it is not clear which political party ― ruling or opposition ― will benefit from the pandemic in the coming national parliamentary elections, which are still scheduled for April 15. Yet, no one party is expected to win a landslide victory.

In North Korea last week, Kim Jong-un showed up at the ground breaking for the construction of a general hospital in Pyongyang. He stressed an urgent need to improve the North's poor medical services. Incredibly, the North claims that there has been no outbreak of coronavirus in their country.

In Washington, Trump is facing the biggest political crisis since he took office. The prospect of his reelection is in trouble. His selling point for reelection was a good economy with more jobs, a low unemployment rate, a thriving stock market, and reassuring rallies of his core supporters. Now all gone with the wind of the coronavirus.

The U.S. may be forced to substitute its traditional conventions to nominate their presidential candidates with "virtual conventions" ― television shows without the attendance of convention delegates. While Joe Biden was appearing as the presumptive presidential nominee for the Democratic Party, several remaining Democratic primaries have been postponed.

It is not clear how the primary process will end. North Korea would seem to prefer Bernie Sanders to Biden for the nomination. Last year, North Korea called Biden "a rabid dog" after Biden had called Kim "a murderous dictator." Biden said he would not meet with Kim without preconditions. Biden's North Korea policy will be a rebuke of Trump's, and probably a repeat of Obama's which also failed.

Trump seems to be coming back to handle the problems from coronavirus more aggressively. However, if Trump is convinced of losing in November, will he consider postponing federal elections altogether? If that happens, Kim may welcome it rather than the possibility of Joe Biden winning the election for next president of the United States.

In the meantime, disruptions from lockdowns, closings, and cancellations will continue in many places in the world. However, these pandemic calamities too will pass and normalcy will be restored at some point.

[The Korea Times, 2020-03-23]
https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/03/167_286623.html