[칼럼] US-China Cold War

김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자

Perhaps Sino-American relations are at their lowest since Nixon's opening of China in 1972. The bitter recriminations on the handling of the coronavirus between Washington and Beijing, with neither party backing down as it aggravates the deterioration of their relations, are raising the specter of a new Cold War. This danger comes at the wrong time and for the wrong reason.

This comes at a time when all countries should work together to defeat COVID-19. It comes at a time when the world economy is expected to decline the most since the Great Depression. It comes at a time when countries should be racing to develop an effective vaccine, a proper treatment, and start easing lockdowns to find a new normal life and an economic recovery. 

An impartial investigation on the origin and spread of the novel coronavirus would be justified to learn the scientific cause of the origin and to prevent or deal more efficiently with any possible, future outbreak of a similar pandemic. However, blaming China for the coronavirus at this point does not help resolve or mitigate the pains from the outbreak.

We know that the first coronavirus case was found in Wuhan, China. Nevertheless, we have not seen a body of evidence of how the first patient was infected by what the WHO termed COVID-19 with no stigmatizing reference to any people, place, or animal associated with the coronavirus.

Washington's talk of China's accountability might be useful for a domestic political campaign, but the practicality of suing China for a remedy for the human and economic costs of the coronavirus sounds like a hollow long shot with legal flaws. There is no established international mechanism to adjudicate such cases, and U.S. courts would grant foreign states immunity to any potential defendant, unless Congress changes the law.

Trade retaliation would be an available tool. But, if this tool is used rashly, it would be mutually damaging. On May 13, Trump blamed China for the coronavirus, tweeting, "We just made a great trade deal, the ink was barely dry, and the world was hit by the plague from China. 100 trade deals wouldn't make up the difference -- and all those innocent lives lost!"

The next day, he said on Fox Business, "We could cut off the whole relationship" with China, adding, "that would save $500 billion", roughly the amount of U.S. imports from China in 2018. 

Trump's harsh words should not be taken literally. Washington is simply not ready to cut off all ties with China, including trade relations. It also has other vital national interests in world affairs involving China, while the Trump administration is imposing more restrictions and sanctions on Chinese companies doing business in the U.S.

Trump's words were maybe an expression of frustration on his part. He is accused of having mishandled the virus spread at an early stage. The U.S. is the world's largest victim of the pandemic. Every day the death toll goes up, and the economy goes down. He is facing a tough election in November. China bashing is not new in U.S. elections. Presumptive Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden also bashes China.

Any effort to mend relations with China is unlikely to surface until after the November election. In the meantime, a tough exchange of harsh rhetoric is likely to continue. Yet, both sides are expected to keep the January trade deal alive, even reluctantly. It was the best deal that resulted from many months of hard work.

Trump has been operating under the notion of "America First," to take care of American economic interests. He is yet to present a comprehensive policy doctrine with respect to what the U.S. wants to do in the world, and what changes it wants to make to the existing systems. 

The Global Times in Beijing has been reacting aggressively to Trump, who often speaks what's on his mind. The Chinese are saying they will not tolerate the U.S. maneuver to link the coronavirus to trade. Beijing is ready to retaliate any U.S. move against China with "countermeasures."

If the U.S. blocks shipments of semiconductors to Chinese firm Huawei, China would designate U.S. companies including Apple, Qualcomm, and Cisco as "unreliable entities", to investigate and impose restrictions on their operations. China will also cancel the planned purchases of Boeing airplanes.

A renewed trade war on top of the prospect of a new cold war between two superpowers will neither be helpful to the global fight against the pandemic nor to the stability of the region. It would put countries like South Korea in a bad position ― back as "a shrimp between two whales."

[The Korea Times, 2020-05-18]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/05/137_289676.html