[칼럼] To resume talks with NK 

김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자

Nuclear talks with North Korea are on hold. There is no inter-Korean dialogue. North Korea is piling up more fissile material and perfecting its strategic warheads and missiles. The United States keeps toughening up on sanctions. Nobody knows how long this standoff will last. We all know that this does not bode well for any party. 

Despite devastating drawbacks to its economy from sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic, the North keeps working on the expansion and improvement of its arsenal of strategic weapons, including smaller nuclear warheads, long-range delivery systems, and submarine launched ballistic missiles. 

It is also improving its short to mid-range missiles, multiple rocket launchers, and supersize artillery guns. However, the speed of arms building may be hampered by its worsening economic situation, as it appears to have affected the pace of the construction project of a general hospital in Pyongyang. 

Following the rupture at a working-level meeting in Stockholm last October, North Korea made it clear that Pyongyang would adopt "a new way" of fighting the sanctions head on and increase its "strategic deterrent," unless the United States comes up with a "different method of calculation" acceptable to the North.

July 18, North Korea reconfirmed its strategy of "bolstering a war deterrent" at a "closed meeting" of the Central Military Commission of the Worker's Party. Some rushed to note that the fact that they used the phrase "a war deterrent" instead of "a nuclear war deterrent" might indicate a softening on the nuclear program. There is no evidence to support such a transition. The North Koreans have used the two terms interchangeably before.

Now, Pyongyang insists that Washington should drop its "hostile policy," as the condition to resuming negotiations with the U.S. The North primarily wants the lifting of all sanctions, provision of security guarantees and the establishment of a normalized relationship. These issues have been discussed in negotiations over the past quarter of a century. All efforts and approaches tried so far have failed to denuclearize the North and allow peace to settle on the Korean Peninsula. 

The U.S. is entrenched in the fixed frame of "denuclearization first and lifting sanctions later." Washington refuses to accept a formula of "a phased approach of reciprocal actions toward the end of denuclearization." The North rejects the American offer of "a bright future of North Korea" that will follow a completely denuclearized North. This approach by the U.S. will never resolve the issue.

There has been much debate on the role of the South in facilitating U.S.-North Korea talks. Such a role requires a positive response from at least one side: Pyongyang or Washington. Given the heightened tensions in inter-Korean relations, it would be more practical for Seoul to seek Washington's flexibility through diplomatic persuasion.

Several creative, new approaches can build on the Singapore agreement of 2018 on "complete denuclearization." For example, Washington can offer a partial, reversible, snapback, lifting of sanctions in exchange for dismantlement of a set of designated nuclear, missile facilities, and a freeze on North Korea's nuclear program. It may be called a good, medium deal. 

In the meantime, the U.S.-ROK alliance should work out a further scaling down on joint exercises scheduled for August or postpone them until after the November election as an incentive for the North to return to nuclear talks. A possible delay in the transfer of wartime operational control to South Korea due to a rescheduling of these drills would be an acceptable tradeoff for mitigating tension and restarting the talks.

There are other affordable incentives that the U.S. can offer to the North: such as a declaration to officially end the Korean War, or an exchange of liaison offices as a preliminary step to normalization. An end-of-war declaration should pave the way for discussions on a peace regime, in parallel with or as part of nuclear talks.

An "October surprise" of another summit is unlikely to happen in consideration of Pyongyang's unwillingness to make concessions that Trump may need to help his election. It is also unlikely that Pyongyang will deliver a "Christmas gift" before November. The North has said it no longer feels obliged to honor its self-imposed moratorium on the testing of nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. But, Kim Yo-jong, Kim Jong-un's sister, has quipped that the U.S. is a beneficiary of the good relations between Kim and Trump.

To conclude, the continuation of the current stalemate on dialogue in the midst of increasing threats must end. The total elimination of North Korea's nuclear threat is not possible in a short period, except by war. Dialogue and negotiation are the only acceptable means to resolve the North Korean issue. 

[The Korea Times, 2020-07-27]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/07/137_293388.html