김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un is back on a busy schedule. On Oct. 3, he reportedly sent "a message of sympathy" to U.S. President Donald Trump who had tested positive for COVID-19, wishing him and his wife a quick recovery. The North's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported that Kim "sincerely hoped that they would be recovered as soon as possible."
The previous day, Kim visited a reconstruction site in Kimhwa County, one of the areas hit hardest by a recent flood, to encourage North Korean soldiers who were mobilized for reconstruction projects. Kim also asked local officials to make sure the residents were happy with the 1,000 new homes, now 80 percent complete, which they will move into soon.
In Seoul, a controversy continues over the tragic incident in which a South Korean fisheries official was shot to death by North Korean soldiers, Sept. 22. The North's own account of the incident, released Sept. 25 and included an apology from Kim Jong-un, raised more questions than it answered.
North Korea admitted that its navy killed the victim but denied an earlier South Korean report that they had burned his body. Pyongyang claimed that it has taken new measures to prevent any future occurrence of a similar incident.
In an effort to reconcile discrepancies between the conflicting accounts, Seoul proposed a joint inter-Korean investigation. However, the North has not responded so far, and it is unlikely that they will accept the proposal.
On Sept. 27 KCNA warned that South Korean vessels engaged in search operations for the victim's body ― that started after the North said they did not burn it ― should not intrude on North Korean waters.
The North claims its territorial waters begin north of the "demarcation line" on the West Sea. The South operates by the Northern Limit Line, which was proclaimed unilaterally by the United Nations Command after the signing of the armistice agreement in 1953.
There has been a tentative inter-Korean agreement to establish a peace zone in the West Sea, covering the overlapping claims for territorial waters by both sides. But, no negotiations have taken place to date.
President Moon Jae-in apparently was encouraged by Kim's quick apology in which he said, he was "very sorry for the unsavory incident that should not have happened," as well as by a recent exchange of letters with Chairman Kim regarding the coronavirus pandemic and flood damage.
The KCNA confirmed Kim's intention to make sure that "no more incident spoiling the relations of trust and respect between the North and the South would happen under any circumstances." A complete turnaround from its narrative on the destruction of the liaison office building in June.
There are different takes on Kim's conciliatory response: (1) Kim should be given credit for being forthcoming about his mistake, as he seeks the semblance of a normal leader, and the South should keep working with him; (2) Kim's apology is not genuine and he was simply reacting to being put on the spot with evidence produced by the South Korean military, holding him accountable; and (3) Kim's apology is just lip service to avoid the complete termination of inter-Korean relations, as he needs assistance from the South to carry out his next five-year economic plan that a party congress will announce in January.
President Moon appeared hopeful for a shift from the misfortune toward a transition that will include resumed dialogue and cooperation with North Korea. However, it should be remembered that no policy on the North will succeed without the support of the people.
If anything, the controversy over the latest episode has deepened the schism in the nation's view of, and attitude toward, the regime in the North. Polarization of opinion over the North is not helpful to its national security.
North Korea is struggling hard to endure sanctions and to recover from flood damage, and all the while defending against the pandemic ― which it claims has not produced a single case. It should remember that nuclear weapons or missiles do not help its economy, instead they use up more of the country's scarce resources.
On Sept. 28, Pyongyang's U.N. Ambassador Kim Song told the U.N. General Assembly that his country would be focusing on economic development since it has a "reliable and effective war deterrent for self-defense." He said, "We badly need an external environment favorable for economic construction. But, we cannot sell off our dignity just in the hope of a brilliant transformation ― the dignity which we have defended as valuable as our own life."
In other words, North Korea will not give up its nuclear program for a U.S. promise of a brighter future that will only come after its denuclearization. He also acknowledged that sanctions are a hindrance to the economic development of his country.
North Korea is likely to decide its next move, after the U.S. presidential election that may go on beyond Nov. 3.
[The Korea Times, 2020-10-04]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/10/137_296973.html