김동현 일민국제관계연구원 방문학자
It may take days or weeks to find out who has won the Nov. 3 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. With the expected delay in the vote count and pre-election polls being so close ― within the margins of error in some of the key swing states ― there are legitimate concerns that election results may end up in courts and in violence.
However, any election disputes or any other aftermath should be settled in time according to the U.S. Constitution to ensure the peaceful transfer of power to a new president or the public swearing-in of Trump for a second term on Jan. 21.
Much has been discussed about how U.S. foreign policy may change under a second Trump administration or a Biden administration, and more specifically, how it will affect the Korean peninsula. Trump claims that he prevented war with North Korea by his bold summit diplomacy. He has said he would make a quick deal in his second term to settle the North Korean issue finally.
Biden will meet with Kim Jong-un if North Korea agrees to denuclearize. For the format of negotiation, Biden would go back to traditional working-level talks for substantive agreement before a summit. During the second debate with Trump, Biden called Kim a "thug." Surprisingly, the North was silent on the apparent "defamation of the dignity of the supreme leader."
Through two recent books, one by John Bolton and the other by Bob Woodward, the North Koreans were vindicated in their views of how close they were to war in 2017, and how ill-advised was Trump by his national security adviser and secretary of state at the failed summit in Hanoi in 2019.
On the other hand, North Korea now with an increased nuclear arsenal appears more confident in their ability for survival. It doesn't seem concerned that a Biden administration will impose more threats or more sanctions on the country. Pyongyang would be unlikely to reach out to Washington if Biden comes in. They will first need to ascertain some sense of his policy direction.
Pyongyang knows that Biden will take at least six months to put together his national security team and to prioritize foreign policy issues. Many are skeptical that North Korea would be a top priority. It is ironic from hindsight that Obama had told the newly elected Trump in 2016 that North Korea would be the most serious security threat to the U.S.
Many experts are warning that the North will launch another long-range missile in order to pressure Washington for talks. Conversely, that may turn out to be a false alarm. The North may think it already has enough negotiating leverage, knowing that Washington is aware of the extent of its WMD capabilities, which it depends on for regime survival.
If it wants to launch another provocation, it will do so at its own pace in tandem with progress in reconstruction from flood damage and self-reliant economic projects fending off the crippling impact of sanctions. Creative North Koreans will continue exploring ways to circumvent the sanctions to find access to financial resources, illicit or not, to support the continuous development of their arsenal.
Whoever will have to deal with North Korea should remember that Obama's "strategic patience" and Trump's top-down approach of "personal relations" failed because of unilateral U.S. demands void of mutual trust and equitable reciprocity. The North will never give up any portion of its arsenal on empty promises or without tangible rewards.
In the meantime, Pyongyang still sees Seoul as Washington's pawn. Oct 29, the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) blasted Suh Hoon, Seoul's national security adviser, as a pro-American sycophant, after he said, "the matters of inter-Korean relations should be settled with discussion and consultation with neighboring countries including the U.S."
It is also driving a wedge between progressives and conservatives in the South. On Oct 30, the KCNA accused the conservative People Power Party of "attaining political gains" at the expense of the Moon administration by waging an anti-North Korea campaign over the recent death of a South Korean fishery official in the West Sea. The KCNA also complained that conservatives were trying to take the issue to international venues such as the U.N. to blame the North.
Pyongyang is not responding to Seoul's proposal for a joint investigation. Its position is, "We are sorry for what happened, but it's not our fault." The KCNA said if the South had stopped the victim from crossing into the North Korean waters, the "regrettable incident" would not have happened.
The North Korean problem will not go away soon. We will have to live with it until we resolve it.
[The Korea Times, 2020-11-02]
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/opinion/2020/11/137_298555.html