How does Foreign Aid Enhance Developing Countries’ Export Varieties?: The Role of Human Capital and Institutional Qualities
해외 원조의 수출다각화 성공 조건: 수원국 인적자본과 정부제도의 역할
by Boyoung Han (한보영), Do Won Kwak (곽도원), Kyunglim Shin (신경림)
<저자소개/About the author>
▶ Boyoung Han (한보영)
Boyoung Han is a Research Fellow at Hyundai Research Institute. She holds her B.A. in Political Science from University of British Columbia and a M.A. in International Commerce from Graduate School of International Studies at Korea University (KUGSIS). Her research interests lie in the areas of foreign aid including aid-for-trade, export structure, economic growth, and international trade.
한보영은 현재 현대경제연구원에서 경제연구실 연구원으로 재직 중이다. 캐나다 브리티시 컬럼비아대학교(UBC)에서 정치학 학사, 고려대학교 국제대학원에서 국제통상학 석사 학위를 취득하였다. 주요 연구 관심분야는 해외원조(무역을 위한 해외원조 등), 수출구조, 경제성장, 국제무역 등이다.
▶ Do Won Kwak (곽도원)
Do-won Kwak has been working at Korea University since 2017 and is currently a Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies in Korea University, conducting empirical research on labor economics, international economics, and econometrics. In 2011, he received a Ph.D. from Michigan State University with a panel data analysis methodology and its application in the field of economics of education. Recently, studies analyzing (i) the effect of trade policy at the national level, (ii) the impact of introducing a new digital technology on student’s academic outcomes, and (iii) the performance of labor market workers and export companies in the introduction of new technology were published in Journal of Marketing Research, Journal of Development Economics, Labor Economics, Economics of Education Review, Economics and Human Biology, and Empirical Economics.
▶ Kyunglim Shin (신경림)
Kyunglim Shin is a Research Professor at the Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University. She earned her Ph.D. in International Commerce from Korea University. Her field of interest includes Aid for Trade, Global Value Chains, Economic Growth of Southeast Asia, and Digital Trade.
<초록/Abstract>
As developing countries suffer from severe export concentration, foreign aid seeks to diversify exports rather than increase exports and trade volume. This study investigated the effects of foreign aid on export product diversification and examined how the effect changes according to the rate of tertiary education enrollment and institutional quality in the recipient countries. An analysis of country pairs consisting of 25 donors and 124 recipients from 1988 to 2020 revealed that foreign aid generally positively impacts export diversification in recipient countries with high tertiary education rates and institutional quality. It showed that a high rate of tertiary education enrollment and high institutional quality are vital for increasing the effect of foreign aid on export product variety in recipient countries. Specifically, among the six measures of institutional quality used, five were positive and statistically significant for the effect of foreign aid on the variety of export products. Interestingly, institutional quality played a more significant role in foreign aid effectiveness, especially when foreign aid is delivered to recipient countries with relatively low tertiary education enrollment rates. This finding highlights the significance of implementing foreign aid for the purpose of achieving economic growth through export diversification, while considering the institutional and educational factors of recipient countries.
개발도상국의 산업 수출 확대를 통한 빈곤 탈출 및 지속적인 경제 개발을 위해서는 저부가가치 제품 생산 활동에서 고부가가치 제품 생산 활동으로 수출 구조의 전환이 필요하다. 본 논문은 개발도상국의 수출 구조 전환을 위해 해외 원조와 수원국의 고등교육 입학률 및 제도수준이 미치는 영향에 대해 분석한다. 1988년부터 2020년까지 25개 공여국과 124개 수혜국을 대상으로 분석한 결과에 따르면, 해외 원조는 고등교육 입학률과 제도 수준이 모두 높은 수원국의 수출 다각화에 긍정적인 영향을 미치는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 구체적으로, 제도수준 하위 6개의 지표 중 5개 지표에서 해외원조의 수출다각 화 효과에 긍정적이고 통계적으로 유의미한 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 특히, 고등교육 입학률이 상대적으로 낮은 수원국에서 제도의 중요성이 더욱 높게 나타났다. 이러한 결과는 교육수준이 낮은 경우, 원조를 통해 수출다각 화를 개선하는 데 제도의 중요성이 높아지고, 교육수준이 높은 경우, 즉 높은 수준의 인적자본을 갖춘 경우, 제도의 중요성이 상대적으로 낮아진다는 점을 보여주었다. 이는 수출다각화를 통한 경제성장 목표를 달성하기 위해 해외원조 운용의 중요성을 인식하고, 수원국의 제도적, 교육적 요인들을 고려하여야 함을 시사한다.
<목차/Contents>
Ⅰ. Introduction
Ⅱ. Literature Review
Ⅲ. Empirical Analysis
Ⅳ. Results
Ⅴ. Conclusion
Key Words: Foreign Aid, Export/Production Structure, Export Diversification, Economic Growth, Institutional Quality, Human Capital
주제어: 해외원조, 수출구조, 수출다각화, 인적자본, 제도수준