[분석] SCOTUS Ruling and Korea
- 빅터 차 (美 CSIS 한국석좌)
The Supreme Court’s ruling on the consolidated cases of V.O.S. Selections, Inc. v. Trump and Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump is expected tomorrow. The Court’s expedited hearing of the case will determine the legality of Trump’s use of IEEPA to impose global tariffs against U.S. trading partners. Here are some key numbers to keep in mind with this impending decision.
$150 billion
If the Court rules against the Trump administration’s actions, this could require the government to refund up to $150 billion in tariff revenues collected from over 300,000 companies. Korean companies may be able to reclaim all duties they have paid since February 2025.
Four
The Korean companies most affected by the Court’s ruling will be in the automotive sector (e.g. Hyundai/Kia and auto parts manufacturers), electronics (e.g., Samsung, SK), pharmaceuticals (e.g., Celltrion), and chemicals and industrials (e.g., LG, Lotte, Kumho Petroleum, and Hanwha Solutions).
Zero
A Court ruling could take tariffs, now at 15 percent pursuant to the U.S.-Korea Trade and Investment Framework Agreement, down to zero percent, and would raise questions about the remaining terms of the agreement as enumerated in the Joint Fact Sheet. For example, if Trump seeks to maintain tariffs through other means (discussed below), this will introduce even greater uncertainty on the heels of a hard-fought agreement that provided a degree of stability in the alliance for the Lee Jae Myung government. Lee could face domestic pressure to nix the deal if the IEEPA case is struck down by the Court, but pulling back could jeopardize other valued aspects of the agreement, including shipbuilding and nuclear submarines. For the U.S., the tariffs were arguably an efficacious element in securing $350 billion in Korean investment. Other equities of a threatened deal would include important non-tariff barrier concessions by South Korea including in autos (unit cap elimination), digital trade (data localization, duties on e-transactions, network usage fees), agriculture (U.S. meats, cheeses, regulatory approvals), and pharma (pricing, patents). The two allies will have to find a way to preserve valued elements of the agreement amid domestic and partisan reactions with both administrations facing elections in 2026 (U.S. midterms and South Korean local elections) that will be seen as a popular mandate of the governments’ policies.
338
If the Court rules against the legality of IEEPA, the Trump administration will likely seek to maintain the tariffs through alternative means, including Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 which gives the President wide authority (i.e., without federal agency findings, unlike Section 232 or 301) to levy tariffs of up to 50 percent on imports from countries that are “found as fact” to be undertaking “unreasonable” trade practices discriminating against the United States. No previous administration has used this provision of the Tariff Act of 1930 and its application would almost certainly be challenged in court.
[CSIS, 2026-01-08]